Work plan

The THINK-UP work plan is divided into 4 thematic tasks : (1) Segmentation of demand and supply of passenger transport markets This task aims to define market segmentation as regards supply and demand characteristics. The workshops involve both users and service providers in order to identify homogenous demand and supply segments. Furthermore the workshops provide the forum for discussion on the evolution of the different market segments as regards core/competitive positions of the modes. The task defines 10-20 market segments to provide a focus for policy, identifying the core and competitive markets where conditions can be improved further. (2) Segmentation of demand and supply of freight transport markets This task, which is organised in a similar way, focuses on freight transport markets, and through the workshops, it brings together users of freight services from different industrial sectors, and also service providers. By identifying specific supply and demand segments, it is possible to consider the trends in freight markets (e.g. changing logistics requirements, improved operating systems). The market segments identified will be validated by experts at a final seminar, on the cross-segmentation of supply and demand for transport markets. (3) Policy variables for mobility prediction This task aims to specify transport policies developed at different institutional levels, to shed light on the relevance of policy and institutional analysis for scenario building and in turn forecasts. 3 workshops and 1 seminar are organised to bring together experts, policy makers and transport professionals. The workshops consider the policy context, and the interaction between policy, external developments and the transport system. The final workshop and seminar investigate the construction of policy variables for strategic models and the definition of policy variables for mobility scenarios. (4) Projection tools and trend estimation The task assess the state of the art of European and national forecasting tools, and identifies the most suitable model and/or combination of models for forecasting and sensitivity analysis. The first seminar reviews national and European trend forecasts, scenario assumptions and policy objectives to assess the suitability of the models (in terms of scope, sensitivity to exogenous changes, sensitivity to changes in model parameters, and in the ability to address a wide range of market segments). With input from the tasks on market segmentation, further workshops consider the integration of supply and demand factors and the sensitivity of modal split. The final workshop discuss and give feedback to model results produced by EXPEDITE and other forecasting projects.

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